- President Trump smashed a pause button at some of his tariffs Before Friday, large banks came to mind with analysts. The president’s announcement in social media had a direct impact on markets using Nasdaq Ending the day by 12%and the S&P 500 increased by more than 9%. Individual stocks rose: Delta Air Lines raised 23%, Nvidia grew more than 18%and AppleIn which more than $ 770 billion is observed, after the retail price of the iPhones, the day was closed by 15%.
Stock markets flared up with a heavy rise after President Donald Trump’s position on social truth “truth” stage Some of his tariffs and comments of the Treasury Secretary Scott Holnto assure the world that the United States is not involved in the trade war.
Despite the short respite from the masses of the week, a cooling uncertainty Approaches over the next 90 days.
“Every portfolio manager is trying to find out if you can draw a straight line for future negotiations,” said Jake Shurmaire, Harbour Capital and former member of the Federal Bank of the New York’s Markets Markets Markets. “We get another 90 days before we have to make this song again and dance.”
For a set level: President Trump has announced a sign of tariffs During the address of the pink garden last week, which was telegraph after his company. Investors at the price of tariffs and subsequent impact on trade policy, but the degree of tariffs was greater than expected. The markets fell on trading days after Trump’s announcement. The word “recession” is avoid at all costs – take advantage of the conversation and the chances of stumble in the USA in one roseaccording to Jpmorgan chasethe CEO of which Jamie Dimon announced publicly that the recession was a “probable result” after the tariffs. Trump said the smoke comments took into account his decision Put a partial pause on Wednesday.
After Trump’s announcement, the markets staged a graphic share, and Nasdaq ended by 12%, and the S&P 500 grew by more than 9%.
Mikhail Orlando, Executive Director of the JP Morgan Center and Energy Management at the University of Colorado Denver, Wealth The pause is a relief, mostly from the uncertainty that continued to weigh the prices of capital. But greater developmentThe appeared last weekend was that the US Treasury “stopped looking like a safe harbor during uncertainty and began to look like a risky rate,” Orlando said.
“I think this tariff period” cooling “has done a lot to dispel the problems that may not understand the idea of profit from trade,” Orlando added.
But the question remains: what happens next?
“Additional air cover”
For the first time, there is attention to whether there will be damage from tariffs, as well as expenses for extensive economic uncertainty, Schurmanier said. All the planning of the capital costs and the main strategic steps have just thrown out the window because there is no certainty, he said.
This week, the head of the portfolio noted that this week there will be critical signs that you need to pay attention to calls between large companies and analysts, especially against how executives and financial directors plan to fight the rates – and everything that might cause disruptions.
“It gives a wide air cover to reset any bad news,” Schurmeyer said. “Any bad news you have, pull it out in this quarter.”
Money executives will also observe how big bank leaders, such as Dimon, talk about how their customers respond, the prospect of M&A and the recommendations for their willingness to grant, Schurmer added. Now it is too early to talk about potential loan losses, but other topics will indicate whether there are stronger business moods.
“Whatever they say, it will be quite instructive,” Shurmer said.
China: 104% to 125%
Another main question – this China.
The next few weeks are likely to register from the impact of possible additional revenge after China promised to “fight the end” before Trump raised tariffs for the country up to 125%. Trump did not counteract the tariffs on China and instead went to them Due to “lack of respect in China,” the President wrote on social media.
Idana Appo, Parent Eagle Investments portfolio and former deputy head of the World Economic Analysis Department at the New York Federal Reserve, said the situation with China is extremely serious, from the tariff level to the potential of violated trade relations between the two largest economies of the world.
It is unclear whether the last step of Trump will push China to negotiate the tariffs, or if the economic tension reaches such a level that China will become more confrontational in the geopolitical sphere, Apio said.
“Given the sharp escalation and economic friction between the US and China, which is obviously not suitable for the global economy, or is it overflowing on the geopolitical side?” she said. “When they feel that they have nothing left to lose … Does China start to push into other areas? I hope the answer is” no. “
Economic Forecast: “Very Minor”
Beyond What can happen to China, the US economy remains in a “very small place”, – said Apppio.
She put the recession into her forecast, but Appio said that she was not sure whether she removed it at this stage from the coming uncertainty, even if the tariffs are not as large as initially announced last week. In addition, at this stage there is still a place for further tariff action, and some uncertainty was really eliminated.
“One fear I have is that we repeat all this exercise in 90 days,” Appio said. “It is, to put it mildly, swept into the roller coaster.”
Originally this story was presented on Fortune.com
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2025-04-10 00:07:00
Amanda Gerut
