Xi’s real test is not Trump’s trade war

If you say Donald Trump at the wholesale market and trade fair in China, you will hear a faint idiot.

The US president and his 145 percent tariffs did not fear many Chinese merchants.

Instead, they inspired online Chinese nationalists to create ridicules in a series of viral videos and reels. Some of them were caught in the shoes and iPhone assembly lines by President AI President Trump, Vice President of JD Vance and Technology Mog Ellon Musk.

China did not act as a country facing the prospect of economic pain, and President Xi Jinping made it clear that Beijing would not collapse.

“For more than 70 years, China has always relied on efforts for independence and development. This month, we did not rely on anyone’s gifts and are not afraid of unreasonable oppression.”

Since China depends much less than US exports 10 years ago, his confidence can be partially coming. But the truth is that Trump’s cliff spirit and tariff hiking are already pushing for a pressure point in China’s own struggle economy. As the housing crisis increases, the Chinese people do not spend as much as the government wants as the government wants.

XI has gained strength in China’s dream of revitalizing in 2012. It is currently being tested seriously, not by US tariffs. Is the problem now that Trump’s tariffs will weaken XI’s economic dreams or change the obstacles that exist?

The population is 1.4 billion, and China has a theoretically huge domestic market. But there is a problem. They do not seem to spend money while the state’s economic outlook is uncertain.

This was not caused by the trade war, but was triggered by the collapse of the housing market. Many Chinese families have invested in saving their lives in their homes and have seen prices plummeted over the past five years.

Housing developers continued to build as the real estate market broke down. I think China’s total population will not fill all the empty apartments across the country.

Two years ago, the former deputy director of the Chinese Statistics Bureau said that the most “extreme estimation” two years ago is that there are enough empty houses for 3 billion people.

China’s travel is full of bin projects, a towering concrete peel line marked as “ghost city”. Others were mounted, the garden was landscape, the curtains were formed of the window, and were filled with the promise of the new house. But you can say that the apartment is empty when the lights are not visible at night. There are not enough buyers that fit this level.

The government acted five years ago to limit the amount of money that developers could rent. However, according to the Feut survey in the February, the price of housing prices and consumer confidence in China were carried out, and analysts predicted that the stock price dropped 2.5% this year.

And worrying about the middle class Chinese families is not a housing price.

They are concerned about the government You can provide them with pensions -In the next 10 years, about 300 million people between 50 and 60 are now leaving Chinese personnel. According to the 2019 estimation of the state -owned Chinese Social Sciences Academy, the government pension fund may lack money by 2035.

There is also a fear of sons, daughters and grandchildren. You can get a job Millions of university graduates are struggling to find work. According to the official data released in August 2023, more than one in the city area between 16 and 24 years old in the city area is unemployed in China. The government has not announced youth unemployment since then.

The problem is that China can simply turn the switch and sell it to the US in the product sales and sell it to local buyers.

NIE HUIHUA, professor of NIE HUIHUA of Renmin University, said, “In view of the downward pressure on the economy, domestic spending is unlikely to expand significantly in the short term.”

“It takes time to replace exports by internal demand.”

According to Professor Zhao Minghao, the deputy director of the American Studies for American Studies at Fudan University, “China has no high expectations for dialogue with the Trump administration. “We are adjusting China’s domestic policy.”

To revive the economic slowdown, the government has announced billions of dollars of childcare subsidies, wage hikes and better paid leave. In addition, we have introduced a $ 41 billion program that offers discounts on items such as consumer electronics and electric vehicles (EV) to encourage more people to spend more. But Professor Zhang Jun, the dean of Fudan University’s economy, thinks this is not “sustainable.”

“We need a long -term mechanism,” he said. “We must start increasing the disposable income of the residents.”

This is urgent for XI. When he caught power 13 years ago, the dream of prosperity was not a reality.

XI also knows that China has a discouraged young generation worrying about the future. It can cause greater problems with the Communist Party: protest or anxiety.

According to a report from Freedom House’s China Essent Monitor, protests protested by financial dissatisfaction have increased rapidly over the past few months.

All protests are quickly conquered and censored to social media, so it is unlikely to be a real threat to XI.

In 2012, XI said, “Everyone can do well only when the country is doing well and the country is good.”

This promise was made when China’s economic rise seemed to be unable to stop. Now it looks uncertain.

The country has developed greatly over the last decade in the same area as consumer electronics, batteries, EVs and artificial intelligence as part of pivot of high -end manufacturing.

It was the dominance of US technology with chatbot Deepseek and BYD, winning Tesla last year and becoming the world’s largest EV producer.

But Trump’s tariff threatened to throw a spanner into the work.

For example, the limitation of major chip sales to China, including the most recent exports of US chip large companies, aims to suppress XI’s ambition for technology advantage.

Nevertheless, XI knows that Chinese manufacturers have been advantageous for decades, so US manufacturers are struggling to find the same infrastructure and skilled labor elsewhere.

President XI is also using this crisis as a catalyst for further changes and trying to find more new markets.

Professor Zhang said, “In the short term, some Chinese exporters will be greatly affected.” But Chinese companies will take the lead to adjust the export destination to overcome the difficulties. Export companies are waiting for new customers. “

Donald Trump’s first term was a signal of China to find another place for buyers. It has expanded its ties in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa, and belt and road trade and infrastructure infrastructure have shown their relationship with so -called Global South.

China is rewarding its diversification. According to Lowy Institute, more than 145 countries deal with China more than the United States.

In 2001, only 30 countries chose Beijing as a senior trade partner in Washington.

As Trump aims to be an enemy with a friend, some people think that XI can further improve the US -led world order and describe his country as a stable alternative global trade partner and leader.

The Chinese leader chose Southeast Asia for overseas travel after the tariff announcement, and detected that his neighbors would be anxious about Trump’s tariffs.

About one -quarter of China’s exports are now manufactured or shipped in second countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia.

Recent US behavior can provide an opportunity for XI to form a positive role in China in the world.

Professor Chang said, “Trump’s compulsory tariff policy is an opportunity for Chinese diplomacy.

China will have to step on carefully. Some countries will be nervous that products manufactured for the United States can flood in the market.

In 2016, Trump’s tariffs originally sent cheap Chinese imports to Southeast Asia for the United States. Many local manufacturers are harming.

According to HUIHUA, “about 20%of China exports go to the United States, which can lead to dump and malicious competition if these exports are flooded in the local market or country.

The XI has a barrier that presents itself as a mediator of free trade in the world.

In recent years, China has suffered trade restrictions on other countries.

In 2020, after the Australian government demanded a global investigation of the origin and early handling of cobid epidemics, Beijing claimed that it became a political maneuver on them, and China took biological security measures on coal, cotton and lobster on the Australian wine and barley. Some Australian exports of certain products to China have fallen to zero.

Richard Marles, Secretary of Defense, said earlier this month, as Washington expanded the trade war with Beijing, he said, “It will not hold China’s hands.

China’s past behavior can interfere with XI’s current world service, and many countries may not choose between Beijing and Washington.

Despite various difficulties, XI says that Beijing can endure economic pain than Washington. In this great power competition.

And as Trump first blinked last week, suggesting a potential U -turn to tariffs last week, and the taxes imposed on China’s imports so far said, “It will be substantially lowered, but it will not be zero.”

Meanwhile, Chinese social media is active again.

It was one of the most popular search topics of China’s social media platform Weibo after the US president alleviated his approach to tariffs.

Even if a conversation occurs, China is playing a longer game.

The last trade war had to diversify the export market from the United States to other markets, especially the southern part of the world.

This trade war will depend on the policy created by Beijing, not in Washington, whether China is looking in a mirror to see his defects.

Best Photo Credit: Getty Image

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