Jpmorgan chase & Co. She said she expected the US economy to fall into the recession this year after accounting for the likely exposure of the tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration.
“Now we expect real GDP to contract under the weight of tariffs, and for the whole year (4Q/4Q) we are now looking for real GDP -0.3%, which is 1.3%earlier,” -said on Friday Friday Friday, referring to the gross stable product.
“The predicted reduction in economic activity is expected to be opposed to hiring and over time to raise unemployment up to 5.3%,” Ferol said.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday about major tariffs for US trading partners worldwide sent the S&P 500 shares to the lowest level for 11 months,By wiping $ 5.4 trillionThe market value is just two trading classes to close the week.
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The JPMORGAN forecast has occurred together with similar changes in other banks that have reduced forecasts this year since the US tariff announcement. On Thursday, Bar PLC said itexpects GDP to conclude a contractIn 2025 “According to the recession”.
On Friday, Citi economists reduced their growth this year to only 0.1%, and UBS economists fell to 0.4%.
“We expect imports from the rest of the world to decrease by more than 20% compared to our forecast horizon, mainly in the next few quarters, bringing GDP to the level of 1986,” said US U.SBS chief economist Jonathan Pingle. “The safety of trade policy provides for a significant macroeconomic adjustment of the economy at $ 30 trillion.”
“The Forecast Stagflation”
Ferrals said that in June, he expected that the federal reserve will start to reduce the interest rate and start the rate at each subsequent meeting by January, which would lead to a benchmark of 2.75% to 3% of the current range 4.25% to 4.5%.
These cuts will come, despite the key increase of major inflation up to 4.4% by the end of the year, from the current level of 2.8%.
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“If this is being implemented, our STAGFlationary forecast would submit to the Fed politicians,” Ferrals wrote. “We believe that material weakness in the labor market is eventually, especially if it leads to the weaker growth of wages, thereby giving the committee more confidence that the spiral does not contain.”
On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “it seems we don’t need to rush” to make any adjustments to the tariffs. His comments came after the release of the latest monthly employment report from the Labor Statistics Bureaushowed reliable hiringIn March, together with a slight unemployment rate, up to 4.2%.
Investors rely on the complete interest value by the end of the year, according to futures.
Originally this story was presented on Fortune.com
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2025-04-05 15:06:00
Matthew Boesler, Bloomberg
