UK budget surplus for January does not meet the expectations

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In January, the UK state finances unfolded to less than the expected surplus when Chancellor Rachel Reivz struggled to keep his budget plans on his way and start the economy.

In January, the public sector was in surplus by £ 15.4 billion, 0.8 billion pounds more than last year, and the highest this month since 1993, said the National Statistics Office on Friday, citing record records income and tax revenues.

However, it was still less than the excess of 20 billion pounds in January.

The figures come when the chancellor struggles for the growth of the UK’s economy, adhering to their self -proclaimed financial rules, which suggest that current expenses are funded by tax revenues.

The chancellor’s plans were blown out of the course of poor economic data, including the increase that were calculated, threatened to destroy the $ 9.9 billion error, which she gave in October.

Separate figures ons, published on Friday, showed a stronger recovery of retail sales than expected in January at the back of the strong wage growth.

However, state finances should be further stressed as the government is facing pressure to increase the cost of defense for US President Donald Trump’s call.

On Friday, ONS said the borrowing for the financial year before January was higher than a year earlier, which is £ 118.2 billion-11.8 billion more than at the same time in the financial year 2023-24 and higher than in The 105.4 billion pounds, the office for budget liability was waiting in October.

Alex Kerr, the UK economist on the Consultancy Capital Economics, said that “keeping bad news” in recent economic data emphasized the difficult choice of chancellor.

He added that as a pressure government for the government has made a defense spending, “OBR will probably conclude that the Chancellor’s main stock against her financial rules was destroyed.”

“The Britain’s fiscal post remains concerned,” said Dennis Tatarkov, Senior Economist KPMG.

“If the chancellor remains committed to his financial goals, then a spring statement may be required to contain more taxes and changes in the cost,” he added.

The UK fiscal forecast may still improve and if the budgetary responsibility department produces its final report with the statement on March 26, which means that taxes or tough costs are unnecessary.

But the initial OBR forecast, transferred to the Treasurer earlier this month, showed that the main stock of the Riva was destroyed.

The budget surplus is often found at the beginning of the calendar year, as the income tax and the capital increase is released in late January.

In January 2025, in January 2025, revenues from these taxes at the amount of £ 36.2 billion were £ 3.8 billion. They still did not grab the OBR forecasts.

Kerr said that insufficient tax revenues reflected the main weakness of the economy, but noted that public expenses also go a little ahead of the OBR forecasts.

Darren Jones, Chief Treasury Secretary, said the government “seeks to ensure economic stability and comply with our financial rules.”

This article has been amended to reflect the fact that the January Finance surplus did not meet the expectations