Is the US headed into a recession under Trump?

In last year’s campaign, Donald Trump promised Americans to guide the new prosperity era.

Now he has drawn a slightly different picture in his presidential position.

He warned that it would be difficult to lower the price and warned that the public should prepare for “small disturbances” before returning to the United States.

Analysts, on the other hand, point out his policy and say that the probability of stagnation is increasing.

Does Trump try to cause a recession in the world’s largest economy?

In the United States, the economic downturn is defined as an extension of economic activities with excellent unemployment and poor income.

Economic analysts’ choirs have recently warned that the risk of such scenarios is increasing.

According to the JP Morgan report, after 30%from the beginning of the year, the US policy was “out of growth and warned,” while MARK ZANDI, a chief economist at Moody’s analytics, raised the probability from 15%to 35%and cited tariffs.

This prediction is S & P 500, with 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It has fallen to the lowest level since September as a sign of fear of the future.

Market confusion is partially led as a concern about new taxes on tariffs introduced since Trump’s inauguration.

He hit the product of the three major trade partners in the United States, who had a new mission, and further threatened the movement in which the analysts believed that they would increase prices and suppress growth.

However, the latest official inflation figure in the United States showed the price increase in February.

The Ministry of Labor said the price rose 2.8% from January 3% to 12 months to February.

Still, Trump and his economic advisers warned the public to prepare for economic pain, Market Problem -A significant change in his first term, he often cited the stock market as a measure of his success.

He said last week that there will always be changes and adjustments.

The posture increased investor worry about his plan.

Goldman Sachs said last week’s economic downturn was raised from 15%to 20%and the policy changed its economy into “major risks.” But the White House still mentioned that there is a “option to withdraw back when the risk of disadvantages starts to look more serious.”

The company’s analysts warned, “Even if the White House faces much worse data, it warns that the risk of economic downturn will increase if it is dedicated to policy.”

For many companies, the biggest question mark is tariff, which increases the cost of US companies by imposing taxes on imports. As Trump discloses the tariff plan, many companies are trying to find out the future and are facing lower profit margins while maintaining and hiring investment.

Investors are also worried about great cuts on government workers and government spending.

Brian Gardner, the head of Washington’s Washington Policy Strategy, said that companies and investors thought Trump had intended tariffs as a negotiation tool.

“But the president and his cabinet signal are actually a bigger deal. That’s the restructuring of the US economy,” he said. “And it has been driving the market for the last few weeks.”

The US economy was already undergoing a slowdown in the central bank, which raised interest rates to cool down activities and stabilize prices.

In recent weeks, some data suggests faster weakness.

Retail sales declined in February, and Trump’s reliability on various investigations on consumers and businesses has fallen after the election, and retailers and manufacturers such as major airlines, Walmart and Target are warning their withdrawal.

Some analysts are worried that the decrease in the stock market can cause more clamps to spending, especially among high -income households.

As a result, it can cause a big blow to the US economy led by consumer expenditure, and it is increasingly dependent on richer furniture as low -income families face pressure from inflation.

Jerome Powell of the US Central Bank provided guarantee in last week’s speech and pointed out that in recent years, emotions are not a good indicator of action.

“Despite the high uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place,” he said.

But the US economy is deeply related to other worlds, warning that XTB’s research director Kathleen Brooks.

“The fact that tariffs are weakening anyway, and the fact that tariffs can interfere with it must be a fear of recession,” she said.

Anxiety in the stock market is not about Trump.

Investors have already gained great profits over the past two years and have already been anxious about the possibility of revision due to the rapid runs of technology stocks promoted by investor optimism on artificial intelligence (AI).

For example, Chipaker NVIDIA rose from less than $ 15 in early 2023 to almost $ 150 in November last year.

This rise in this type has argued for the “AI Bubble”. Investors will have a significant impact on the stock market, regardless of the broader economy.

Nowadays, the optimism of AI is becoming more and more difficult to maintain the US economy.

Gene Munster, a technical analyst of Deepwater Asset Management, wrote about social media as “withdrawal” as his optimism theory increased “measured” over the last month.

“The bottom line is that if we enter the economic downturn, it will be very difficult for AI trade to continue,” he said.