Who blinks first to negotiate tariffs?

Early on Thursday morning, the Chinese state media announced that the United States is starting to negotiate tariffs with Beijing.

The rest of the world was surprisingly waiting for a high tariff with a throttle trade between the world’s two economies, up to 245%in some Chinese exports to the United States.

Donald Trump’s administration has contacted Beijing using a variety of channels, according to Yuyuantant’s social media platform Weibo, an account with China’s central television (CCTV).

Less than a week later, less than a week later, less than a week after Trump claimed that the dialogue between the two countries was already in progress, less than a week. Beijing has a proposal that later refused.

In a Thursday post, Yuyuantantian said, “China does not have to talk to the United States.” “From the point of view of negotiations, the United States must be a more unstable party.”

The statement follows the cycles of the US and China’s claims and rejection because each side does not begin to discuss publicly.

The problem is not whether the discussion will be made, but in which circumstances and whose commands are in.

Experts are chicken games between Trump and Chinese leader XI Jinping, featuring TUSLE. The two attempt to save their faces and secretly seek the escalation of the trade war, that is, the trade war.

JA Ian Chong, a professor of political science at Singapore National University, said, “We can expect this back and forth because Washington and Beijing do not want to look like they do.

“[But] Escalation is to get the overall benefit of both sides, so there is an important incentive to do so. “

Wen-Ti Sung, a member of the world’s Australian center, speaks in another way. “Two racing cars are like each other. First of all, the weak people of the two parties will appear to be weak of the two parties.

That is why a leader who admits that he is the first person to start a customs dialogue may seem to compromise his position in the negotiations.

“A person who seems to be desperate loses negotiation leverage,” he said. “Both sides want to describe the other as more desperate.”

This unique deadlock -this unique deadlock, which pursues the same results but does not want to suggest it for the first time, did not cause tactics of “constructive ambiguity.”

This tactic is a tactic that this tactic pointed out as a description of Yuyuantantian’s Weibo Post.

“This is trying to explore the possibility of creating an off -lamp on both sides using Word games, and is trying to gradually go up in this escalation spiral,” he said.

One way to avoid this chicken game is when a third party is mediated and offers off -lamps on both sides. Mr. Sung explained that other options are “many loose understanding of what the other person has reached.”

That way, the side that comes to the table can still be characterized as a response, not the first movement.

In the case of Trump and XI, tariff negotiations can start with both leaders who claim that they have won any kind of victory in the trade war.

The optics here are important. As CHONG pointed out, the withdrawal is one thing, but another top priority between Trump and XI is to “win the domestic audience.”

“Trump definitely wants to show that Beijing has made a carrier, and on the Chinese People’s Republic, XI wants to show that Trump can be more reasonable, moderate and acceptable to his people and the world,” CHONG said.

On the domestic front, the two leaders are facing a headwind due to tariffs. This week, Trump struggled to suppress the fear of the economic downturn. New data The US economy pointed out that it had contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2022.

Meanwhile, the person before XI-Customs I’m already fighting Continuous low consumption, real estate crisis and unemployment rate must reassure the Chinese population. You can protect the economy struggling to false and rebel against the trade war.

“Both [Trump and Xi] At this point of the trade war, Mr. Mr. recognizes that either way can no longer be the result of the triumph. “SUNG says.

“Trump knows that it will not reach 100%of what he wants, so China is trying to find a concession point that can win enough victory for domestic purposes.”

And China is not reluctant, but he added, “It’s trapped at the right price.”

In the case of XI, Mr. Sung described the situation as “two -stage game”.

“China should manage the US bilateral negotiations in the US, but domestic Beijing has to save enough faces, so China’s leadership can maintain this story that the eastern part is coming up and the West is decreasing.”

“KOWTOWING towards the east west does not come to the east.”

At the time of writing, the United States did not deny China’s claim to start the talks. But according to CHONG, both sides indicate that the claim is “some kind of contact”.

“The two sides are saying,” he said. “And it is a sign that it is possible to reach some accommodations.”

But the start of the negotiations does not mean that the US -China relationship, which was Rocky before Trump started the trade war, is close to normal.

CHONG does not breathe. First of all, he believes that “posture” has not reached “a place where both sides try to find a way.”

“[Each party] I hope there will be concessions on the other side. So they will do this stand off until they will blink first.