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It is the most beautiful time of the year, as NCAA Male Basketball TournamentGently known as the “March Madness” to the majority, it starts this week.

This will be the 86th edition of the tournament and 40 since it spread to 64 teams in 1985. Given the numerous perfect years, Fox Sports Research has deeply dived into numbers to find you the best betting trends in the first round and the tournament.

We have dissected the teams against the spread (ATS) and directly up (SU) to give you the information you need to create some successful bets during the first week.

Let’s dive.

Underdogs have a slight edge against spread (ATS) in Circle 64

If it seems like underdogs have gone well in the first round in recent years, this is because they are – especially from gambling perspective. Since 2015, they have gone a whopping 149-133-3 ATS (52.8%). Seventy -eight Underdoga actually won their games straight (SU), which is significant given the number of medium and small programs that compete.

Below, we stated that Underdogs had historically occurred since the 1985 tournament spread to 64 teams:

• Underdogs are 610-595-25 ATS (50.6%) and 311-919 are (25.3%) within 64 of all time.
• Two-digit underdogs are 244-243-7 ATS (50.1%) and 38-456 are (7.7%) within 64 of all time.
• Currently 20+ points are expanding in 64 features Alabama (-22.5) vs Robert Morris,, Houston (-28.5) Vs. Siu Edwardsville,, Aburn (-32.5) Vs. State alabama,, Duke (-31.5) vs Mount St. Mary’sand Florida (-28.5) vs State Norfolk.
• The teams with 20+ Underdog 64 points are 91-85-3 ATS (51.7%) and 4-175 are (2.2%).
• The teams who are underdog of 30 points in Circle 64 are 9-14 ATS (39.1%) and 0-23 are.

Specifically seeds relative to the seeds in circle 64

Expanding a little more in the first round, here’s a collapse of some interesting trends with double -digit seeds. You may be surprised at how many lower seeds have been successful in recent years:

• 12 seeds have won 55 first round matches since the field spread to 64 teams in 1985.
• In 12 of the last 16 tournaments, at least one 13 seeds beat the number 4 seed.
• In six of the last 12 tournaments, the number 14 seed won the number 3; However, only two seeds number 14 defeated the seed number 3 in the last five tournaments (2021 Abilene Christian defeated Texas; 2024 Oakland defeated Kentucky).
• In six of the last 12 NCAAs of the tournament, 15 leaders beat two seeds, but none won last year.
• The two-digit seeds are 528-541-22 ATS (49.4%) and 245-846 are (22.5%) in Circle 64 of 1985. Production Oregon–Vcu Game 2021. When Oregon progressed due to Coid-19 edition.
• Excludes Oregon–Vcu Game 2021. When Oregon progressed due to Coid-19 edition.

As stated, it would be unfair not to point out some great losses that contain many small conferences, because these are the schools that usually get these two -digit seeds.

• Horizon League schools have been 1-11 in Circle 64 since 2012, and a lone victory in that range comes from Oakland against Kentucky last year.15. Visited Robert Morris, a team of Lone Horizon League at this year’s tournament, faces Alabama, number 2 seeds in the east.
• 15. Robert Morris’s seeds, a team of Lone Horizon League at this year’s tournament, faced with Alabama, seed number 2 in the Eastern region.
• Big Sky schools are 3-35 in a circle of 64 of all time, and the last victory comes from Montana 2006. Montana will seem to be winning again because they are lonely Big Sky School in the tournament this year and will face three seeds Wisconsin.
• Montana will seem to be winning again because this year the Lonely Big Sky School in the tournament and will face triple seeds Wisconsin.
• The colonial athletic schools have been 0-11 in Kola 64 since 2013, and the last win is coming from VCU (now in Atlantic 10) in 2012. Unc Wilmington Seahawks Are the lonely colonial athletic team on the field this year, faced with the third seed Texas Tech.
• 14. seed Unc Wilmington Seahawks Are the lonely colonial athletic team on the field this year, faced with the third seed Texas Tech.
• The Great Southern Schools are 1-28 in the 64th round, and the lonely victory comes from Winepolor 2007. Lonely Great Southern School in this year’s tournament is the 13th carrier. High pointthat takes 4 seeds Bud.
• Lonely Great Southern School in this year’s tournament is the 13th carrier. High pointthat takes 4 seeds Bud.

Bet on these coaches to cover in car 64

It could be argued that training is more important in college basketball than in any other sport and that the term is emphasized even more in the tournament. There are six coaches in this year’s tournament, which are classified in the top 20 of all time in the title rate for 64 games (at least 10 games trained in the circle):

• Matt Painter: 12-4 ATS (75%) in 64 rounds, tied to the best of any coach of all time (Rick Mayerus was 9-3 ATS in 64 rounds). No. 4 Purdue takes over High Point, wanting to make another tournament ride after losing in the title game last year.
• Dana Altman: 9-4-2 ATS (69.2%) in Circle 64, fourth best of any coach of all time. No. 5 Oregon will take over no. 12 Freedom Like 7.5 points favorites, the Ninth Ducks Tournament under Altman.
• Bill Self: 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) in Circle 64, 14 of all time. No. 7 Jayhawks will take over 10. Seeds Arkansas As favorites in 5.5 points, despite losing three of their last five games.
• Scott Drew, Greg McDermott: Both are 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in Circle 64, related to 15. Best among all coaches of all time. Drew will lead Baylor against Mississippi State as a underdogs in one point, while McDermott will lead Creighton against Louisville as an underdog of 2.5 points; Both of these matches are 8th game number 8 compared to 9.
• Tom Izo: 14-11 ATS (56%) in the 64th round, 19. Best among all the coaches of all time. AND Spartans they are on their 27th. They are favorites with two seeds and 17.5 points against 15 seeds Bryant.

Number 1 seeds dominate in round 64 and in the title game

Although we focused on 64 rounds, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of which the national champions feature.

Ever since the sowing began in 1979, 27 seeds 1 has won 27 national championships, which is most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds combined for only 18 titles. This means that 60% of the national champions since 1979 was a top seed. In fact, six of the last seven national titles winners and 13 of the last 17 champions were the number 1 seed.

In Circle 64, they are almost perfect, the next amazing 154-2 are (98.7%) and 81-73-2 ATS (52.6%) since 1985. The only 16 seeds to defeat the upper seed are UMBCwho collapsed Virginia in the 2018 tournament and Fairleigh Dickinson A team that overthrew Purdue in 2023.

Other notable trends

• Ever since the first four were presented in 2011, the team that won the first four has arrived in a circle of 32 years in 12 of those 13 tournaments – including two teams to make Final Four (2021 VCU, 2024 Ucla.)
• Gonzaga is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 are (53.3%) in the tournament when they play as number 5 or worse (Zags enter the tournament as seed No. 8); They also made a Sweet 16 on nine consecutive tournaments, four shy tie -up modern records North Carolina and five shyness of all the time she held.
• Rick Barnes appears on its 29th NCAA tournament; In the previous 28, his teams lost in the first weekend (circle of 64 or round 32) 19 times.
• Dan Hurley is 15-3 ATS (83.3%) and 14-4 are (77.8%) on the NCAA tournament as the main coach; This is the biggest coverage rate of any coach since 1985 (at least 15 games he trained).
• Since 1985, a double -digit seed has made Sweet 16 in all, except two NCAA tournaments (1995, 2007).
• No team west of the Texas State has won the NCAA tournament since 1997, when Arizona That year he took the title home.

Kenp trends

Kenp has become one of the most respected analytical basketball tools from his debut. The site takes into account the various measuring data for measuring the offensive and defense efficiency of each Division I Basketball Team I. Looking at Kenpom data before the tournament, there are some interesting trends.

First, 22 of the last 23 national champions have taken place in the first 21 adapted offensive efficiency (the exception of UCONN lonely in 2014). The twenty of the last 23 national champions ranked in the first 31 adapted defense efficiency (2009 North Carolina, 2015 Duke, 2021 Baylor).

So, using the Kenpom ladder before 2024, there are eight teams below that corresponds to the ranking law in the Top 21 insults and the Top 31 in defense-with the chanses provided by Sportsings SportSings (from March 20):

Duke: +320 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 42)

Florida: +380 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 48)

Aburn: +400 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 50)

Houston: +600 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 70)

Tennessee: +2200 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 230)

Alabama: +2200 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 230)

The state of Iowa: +4500 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 460)

Gonzaga: +5000 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 510)

Wisconsin.: +6000 to win the title (bet $ 10 for winning $ 610)

Again, this is not a strict measure, because teams can be heated – like a few of the mentioned teams in brackets. But it is a good indicator that teams could be valid for titles before the start of the tournament.

Duke is currently a favorite that won everything (+320), but it is worth noting that 10 of the last 11 winners all had a chance of greater than +450 entry into the tournament (last year’s Ucon team was +350 before the first round). Even before that, Kentucky was the last team to have a short chance in 2012, closing at +185 before their first game.

It is also worth noting that all 23 national champions in Kenpom (2001) are ranked in the Top 25 of the total adapted efficiency. All nine teams above ranks in the first 13 this year’s data before the Kenp tournament.

So who are you betting on?

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