There is no shortcuts to manage Russia

Your guide to what the US 2024 elections are for Washington and the world

When Vladimir Putin ordered a full -scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, it was a turning point similar to September 11. Russia’s attack on a neighbor, although rooted in the country in the darkness, was inevitable. After it happened, however, the war changed the course of history. The ideal storm facing the Western leaders, unprecedented in living memory, and the management of relations with robbery Russia is one of the next.

Coming into its fourth year, the war devastated Ukraine, the main sacrifice of unnecessary horror, unleashed by the Kremlin. Russia is a distant second, but nevertheless war is a strategic catastrophe for it, especially if it is measured against all peaceful alternative trajectories that the country can accept. The sad irony is that, invading Ukraine, Putin has created long -term security problems for Russia, which had not been used before. Three years ago, it would hardly be unlikely that Western missiles would be fired for military purposes in Russia with almost impunity that a non-nuclear country occupies a piece of Russian territory to join NATO, and that there are numerous-maso assessment of special relations with Moscow Germany will be spoiled. But it all happened. Moreover, Putin turned the Ukrainians into a affected nation armed to teeth, and looking for ways to resolve the results for the atrocities committed by those who called them “brothers”.

Russia has indeed suffered a “strategic defeat”, as then stated by US Secretary of State Antoni Blinken in March 2022, as an offensive against Kiev collapsed, humiliating Russia. But soon forward to 2025, and the picture is much worse than the triumphal expectations that many in the West preached their public and Ukrainians. Russia has absorbed failures and, despite the exaltation of the victims and destroys the equipment, pushes for the downed Ukrainian military. Moreover, the Kremlin has begun military recovery. By 2030, his military machine would probably be greater and better.

It is expected that the Russian economy, which faced the tsunami of Western sanctions, was expected that they have long been in the dads. But unlike the USSR, it works on market principles and is guided by capable technocrats. The country is also an important exporter of oil and other goods that are difficult to cut off completely without breaking the global markets. This, as well as interested support of China and other non-Western countries, explains both the sanctions and the stability of Russia. Finally, Russian society – lying out before the war – was translated by repression, and similarly sprayed elites rallied around Putin.

Then, in the most amazing story, Putin was lucky with the US election, Donald Trump, who seeks to stop the war and reduce US involvement. The war has been on a negative trajectory for some time – at least after Ukraine in 2023. But Trump’s elections make the problem much worse. The Kremlin hopes that because it is looking for a quick deal, it can also be a dirty deal that just stop the hostilities but will leave Ukraine without reliable security guarantees and put it on the Imbuz’s way – including through the polarization of the presidential election.

Regardless of the unpredictable results of the prosecution of Trump’s diplomatic cavalry, one is clear: even if the weapon in Ukraine is silenced, and even if Trump leads to Russia in the US, the current Kremlin regime will continue to view the West as a deadly enemy. Putin’s triumphalism, vintage and desire to make a mark on Russian history, as well as a vivid lack of inspection and remains in the Kremlin, suggest Moscow to start preparing for the next war, enhancing the campaign of intimidation against Europe.

Three years ago, the Western capitals believed that Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. The combination of Ukrainian courage and ingenuity, Russian carelessness and Western support provided this scenario. Ukraine is still standing, Europe has painfully reduced its dependence on Russian raw materials and investment in deterrent. But by other indicators the situation for Europeans is worse than in the early 2022. In many countries, it was thwarted complicated after the postponement, which forced to increase the protection by selling hard sale for voters. Most importantly, instead of its traditional role, the basis of European security, the US under Trump becomes a risk source. In addition, unity within the EU and in large countries is more destroyed. Even if competent road maps such as the Draghi report will be drawn up to solve these problems, will the political will follow them?

One of the problems that the West can and should solve is the desirable reflection on the labels to defeat Putin and govern Russia. Unrealistic expectations from open victory, rooted in a strange lack of a clear point of view, were part of the problem. It’s time to keep a quiet, sober talk about how to mitigate the threats from Russia in the next decade, and how to prepare for what can come next.