As Ukrainian war is reached by a three-year stamp, Russia seems to have time on their side

When Russian troops Valid in Ukraine Three years ago, they brought their parade uniforms with them to Push in Kiev. President Vladimir Putin expected a rapid victory.

The Putin took over the “special military operation” to the biggest conflict of Europe from World War II. Tens of thousands were killed, The entire cities were reduced to bulb ruinsMillions of Ukrainians became refugeesAnd Russia was isolated from the west.

Now as older Russian and American officials talk Again and setting the Summit Meeting Stage, Putin appears closer than ever cementing the Moscow gains from the fifth of Ukrainian territory and retention from NATO.

President Donald Trump reversed the three-year policy isolation when he called the Putin “to work together very carefully” to work together “to work together” he said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky “Be involved” in negotiations, but it was not elaborated.

Trump also expressed understanding of Putin’s key request for a pivotal issue of NATO’s promising membership of Ukraine that US members and other alliances were previously described as non-refundable. “They said so much that Ukraine could not enter NATO,” Trump told Russia. “And I’m fine with that.”

Putin attacked on 24. February 2022. year, after the request for which NATO has left membership in Ukraine and withdrawn troops of the Alliance on NATO East Hi – actions rejected by the West.

He claimed that his move was necessary for protection by Russian security interests and protect Russian speakers in Ukraine. Kyiv and his allies have condemned his move as an unrecognized act of aggression. Ukrainians saw it as a Moscow attempt to destroy their national sovereignty and identity.

Russian troops arrived on the outskirts of Kiev early in invasion But he withdrew a month later In the middle of heavy losses and Ukrainian attacks on the lines. More humiliating fail He came in September and October 2022, when Ukrainian counteroffective forced Russia to return from the large parts of the Kharkov region in the northeastern Kherson in the south.

Fortunes was changed in 2023. when Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south failed to reduce the Russian land on the Krima peninsula, which was illegally joined from Kiev 2014. years.

Russia seized the combat initiative last year with offensive along the front of 1,000 kilometers (600 miles), but slow, but persistent gain. In autumn, Russian forces captured the most territories since the opening of the war.

Moscow also Pummled Ukrainian Infrastructure With waves of missiles and drones, destroying much of its capacity for energy production.

Ukraine returned to August in the bay in the Russian Russian region of Kursk to try to distract from the interference of Moscow forces in the east and getting more levers in potential peace talks. Ukraine still has some of these winnings, but its limited resources stretch, which makes it difficult to defend the foothold in the east.

While Zelensky had previously asked Russia from all occupied areas as a prerequisite for conversations, he later admitted that Kiev could not immediately regain all the territory. He said Ukraine would not leave his goal to join NATO – although Trump rejected that “impractical” – and Zelensky emphasized that reliable Western guarantees and strong European peacekeepers for the prevention of Russian attacks.

Trump’s call with the path and in the continuation of Russia – American talks in Saudi Arabia broke “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Trump blamed the failure of a contract with Moscow, who could prevent the war, praised the Russian army, and even suggested that Ukraine is “maybe Russian one day.”

Zelenskyy said Ukraine would not accept any work By arrangement without Kiev and insisted on that European Allies must participate in peace negotiations. He rejected the draft draft in the USA would Washington gave a large share in Ukrainian rare minerals of terrestrial minerals as too focused on American interests and that there is no security guarantee for Kiev.

Trump approach stunned by European allies, whose shock deepened when the vice president of JD Vance sharply beat them At the conference on the security of Munich through free speech and migration.

While Trump’s administration said that European allies were not welcome in peace negotiations, encouraged them to provide security guarantees for Kiev in what former British Ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies called contradictory access.

Washington “signaled that the United States will negotiate the end of the war, but also the European herself must pay and implement the outcome that did not play a role in decision-making,” Gould-Davies, a senior guy for Russia and Eurasia from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Putin’s key goals remain much the same – that Ukraine renew the NATO accession and execute the use of the Russian language to give the state in Moscow – but now wants to withdraw its strengths from the four Moscow Regions, but it does not fully control.

He said that the peace agreement can be largely based on the draft negotiated early war, which Ukraine binded to declare neutrality, share their army and the protection of Russian language and culture. Those talks crashed in April 2022. years without an agreement.

Putin turned off the truce, claiming that he would also benefit Kiev. But some of the Kremlin observers believe that he could accept it if Kiev agrees to maintain the elections after the truce.

Trump echoed Putin’s line to Zelensky, whose term last year, must face voters, while Kiev maintains elections is impossible to maintain in the middle of the war. Trump escaled on Wednesday, that concept on Wednesday publishing on the social media that Zelenskyy “is a dictator without choice.”

Putin could hope for the elections to weaken Zellenic and led to political instability, Tatiana Stanovaya, older associate in Carnegie Russia Euroasia Center.

“According to his opinion, most potential outcomes would be favorable for Moscow – whether political seduction, possible protests or fragile victories of the new president,” she wrote.

Jack Watling from the United States Royal Services Institute says that it faces “political election, economic paralysis due to the lack of foreign direct investment and forced threats to Russia” after the truce.

It is unclear who would supervise any potential truce.

U.S. Defense Minister Pete Hegsetth said no European troops should not be covered by NATO charter by which allies undermine the attack conditions that could dampen European enthusiasm on the mission.

While UK and others signal the readiness for the implementation of the troops for such a mission, Russian Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said after the US Russian conversation in Saudi Arabia not to accept the troops from all NATO members in peacekeeping power.

Some reports suggested Chinese or Brazilian troops as part of the monitoring, but these countries did not signal any intention of participation.

Many believe that Putin is not a rush for a peace offer.

“Negotiations appear as desirable, but by no means necessary for Russia to achieve their goals in the war against Ukraine,” Stanovaya wrote.

“Almost any outcome will be a good score for Moscow,” she said, pointing to the erosion of Western unity and reduced Western support for Kiev in Moscow.

“Putin knew several times that he believed that Russia could achieve his goals in Ukraine without any US agreement,” Stanovaya mentioned. “How worried is, Moscow should simply be waited until Ukraine disintegrates from his own agreement, after which the Russian army will crash the remaining resistance between the Ukrainian armies.”