Trump-China Tariff War: Who then wins? | Trade war news

After the President of the United States Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” about the great US trade partners 9. AprilHe increased them in Chinese goods. The American trade lenses on most imports from China climbed 145 percent. Beijing strengthened duties, at 125 percent on American goods.

Trump has long accused the cinema exploitation of the United States on trade, throwing their tariffs as needed to revive domestic production and are performed in the USA. It also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain a skeptical trump will achieve its goals.

For now, the United States and China is locked in a high-steel chicken game. The world is waiting to see which country will be given and which will remain a course. As Trump for the second time closer to the first 100 days in the office, here is where the tariff war with China stands:

What happens to the negotiations?

Trump recently played the possibility of securing a trade business with China. Last week, US president told His tariffs in China “will be significantly lowered” in the near future.

“We will have a fair job with China,” Trump told reporters on 23. April, interfering with hope of escalation. He also said his administration is “active” negotiation with a Chinese foreign without elaboration.

24. April, however, the Chinese Ministry of Economy rejected the statements of the President Trump, saying that it was No conversation that take place between the two countries.

“Any assertion of the progress of Chinese-American economic and trade negotiations are unfounded and do not have a factual basis,” said the Ministry of Yadong spokesman.

As he insisted that Beijing would not bend any economic strikes from Washington, he also said that the door was “wide open” for conversations.

Last week, Reuters news agency reported that China estimates the exemption for selected American imports – list up to 131 products.

Beijing did not do any public statement on the issue.

Did the tariff war influence American exports?

Trump introduced his tariffs in China to delete a beautiful tariff less than three weeks. The fallout for American companies will not be fully felt until later this year. However, the warning signals are already blinking red.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that soy exports – the largest American agricultural exports – fall dramatically for the period from 11. to 17. April, the first full week reporting from Trump’s Chinese Tariff announcement.

Until 17. April Net sales of American beans fell by 50 percent compared to the previous week. This was led by a drop in 67 percent in the weekly export of soybeans from Race to China, which has been the largest American export destination for the legumes.

According to Fortunatou Piergiuseppe, an additional professor of the economy at Neuchatel University in Switzerland, “Chinese retaliation tariffs will hardly American farmers guess. Some can get out of work.” He added that all exposure sectors will come under the voltage.

In 2023. now they exported approximately $ 15 billion oil, gas and coal to China. The loss of that market would hit American energy firms.

Will imports into the US take a hit?

From the beginning of the Trump Tariff War, the freight consignments fell. According to Linerlytica, the shipping data supplier, the Chinese reservations of the United States fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.

Drastically reducing shipping from the third largest trading partner for American – after Canada and Mexico – he has not yet felt. However, in May, thousands of companies will need to leave their supplies.

According to Bloomberg, retail giants Walmart and the target for Trump in the meeting were in the meeting last week, that customers likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that the supply shocks could get out of Christmas.

Electronic devices, such as TV sets and washing machines, accounted for 46.4 percent of US imports from China 2022. years. The United States also imports a lot of clothes and pharmaceutical ingredients from China. The price of these goods will start to grow since next month.

22. April The International Monetary Fund raised its American Inflation Forecast on 3 percent 2025. Year, thanks to tariffs – full 1 percentage higher than January. The lender also lowered his American forecast for economic growth and raised his expectation that the US would perform in the recession this year.

How will the Chinese economy affect?

Despite the growing tensions between the United States and China, Washington and Beijing remain the main trading partners.

According to US Trade Representatives, the USA was imported $ 438.9 billion in Chinese goods last year.

Which amounts to approximately 3 percent of the overall economic exit of China, which remains largely relying on export.

In a report that is divided into its customers this month, Goldman Sachs said that he expects Trump tariffs to withdraw Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) for as much as 2.4 percentage points.

On their part, Chinese best officials said the country could do without American agriculture and energy and promised to achieve a 5 percent of GDP growth targets for this year.

Zhao Chenxin, Vice President of National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-us import, domestic farm and energy and energy production was sufficient to satisfy demand.

“Even if we don’t buy grains of food and oilseed oil from the United States, there will not have much influence on the supply of our country’s grain,” Zhao said on Monday.

He also noted that there will be a limited impact on the Chinese energy supply if companies stopped importing American fossil fuels.

In some ways, experts said, China is preparing for this crisis.

Fortunato said Al Jazeeri: “The United States is one of the largest export markets from China, so the tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing played this wisely while the US diversification has begun during the first Trump Trafficking War” in 2018. years.

He also pointed out that “now depend on China for up to 60 percent of his critical mineral Import, which is used in everything, from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow is simply not there, so now it is more vulnerable. “

Can now lose a geopolitical position?

Trump is a small secret to his desire to paste that allies imagine us in the trade war. The administration said that it aims to achieve free trade trade with the European Union, the UK and Japan.

In general, the reports suggest that Washington seeks trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a prerequisite for ensuring relief from Trump Tariffs. “

However, American Allies look largely contrary to any economic account with China. Last week, the European Commission said there was no intention of “separation” from China.

By the way, in the UK from the Office from the Office, he recently told Daily Telegraph newspapers, “China is the second largest economy in the world, and that would be, I think, very stupid to do not deal with.”

Many countries are unable to leave their trading ties with Beijing. The EU, especially has a huge trade deficit with China. Cut out access to Chinese goods – and consumer products and enters the industry – they would be able to already the disputed economy.

Over the world in development, China’s trade role is equally crucial. About a quarter of imports Bangladesh and Cambodia comes from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similar to Beijing for importing goods.

“It’s hard to see why countries would like to undermine their business interests to try and reduce the American trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “At this point I think Trump is beautiful and can be forced to blink first to lower the tariff with China.”

Has Trump losing adhesion to republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party does not need to worry about its next election cycle. The Republican Party makes the Republican Party, and Beijing has a political action in Trump Trade War. Simply put, there are more time on your side.

For Trump fun, his saber rattling but looks politically expensive. New Economist-youg The survey shows that Americans who report Trump’s economic actions, they hurt them personally more than they helped a 30-point margin.

And public approval of the economic governance president is low for a while: it fell to 37 percent of UA Reuters-IPSOS survey Published 31. Marta, his lowest score ever in that survey.

If Trump remains, it is likely that his approval assessment can still fall, endangering the fragile procedure of the Republican Party on the U.S. House of Representatives – and the possession of the Senate, the Senate also said.

“For these reasons,” Fortunato said, “China does not feel forcibly hurried to the negotiating desk to ensure a trade contract. This is likely to fall on Trump. “