Directors are in trouble, and consumers are afraid of work losses against the background of Stagflation, analysts warn

Business news

April 27, 2025

Stagflation – a combination of slow growth and growth of inflation And trade wars are the “shock of stagflation”, according to Apollo Global Management. In a new research note, which cooperates by the chief economist Thorstene Slo, the firm predicts a sequence of events that can lead to an economic catastrophe.

Recent array of tariffs Trump administration has announced the potential to cause recession by the summer of 2025, the new report from Apollo Global Management.

Based on the potential sequence of Apollo events, the delivery of containers from China to the US slow Once this month, refer to the fare for President Trump’s release. By allowing 20 to 40 days on the trip, the containers sent to the ports of the United States may stop in May. By mid -May it portends a quick slowdown Demand for truckingThen there will be less stock in stores so people can buy. With these signs, this will mean sluggish sales in the spring, while subsequent dismissals in retail and trucks can come to the end of May and early June. Then, in the summer of 2025, a complete recession can take root.

In the report “Apollo”, co-authored by Chief Economist Thorstene Slov, deputy director Rajwi Shah and associate Shruuta Galvankar, draws a gloomy economic forecast and, in fact, a warning that the US economy is quickly seeking recession because of trafficking disruptions.

The warning signs have already appeared, even if the Trump tariff plan was announced only a few weeks ago. The Apollo report specifically identifies trading wars as a STAGFlation’s shock as they force economic activity with the supply chain and less trading. At the same time, trade confrontations usually raise prices for the cost of imported goods, while reducing competition. Terrible stagfolo results of a combination of slow or stagnant growth and increased inflation. There wasn’t A steady period The main stagFlation for four decades.

Apollo Note Research prevents important business mood indicators in the short term decrease, and the way to respond to consumers causes serious concern.

Confidence of the CEO

Chief Executive Director‘s Last survey The CEO’s confidence shows a decrease in optimism: 62% of the best performers predict a slowdown or decline in six months.

General Directors interviewed who predicted a strong recession, increased from 9% to 14% in April, in April, in April Chief Executive DirectorFound monthly poll. In addition, about 84% of the leaders of the leaders reported that the income was expected at the beginning of the year, while only 49% predicted that the revenues would rise in 2025, when the executives were asked again.

Only 9% of the Director -General expected that earnings were reduced at the beginning of the year compared to 44% in the April poll.

The steep attack in the Optimism CEO is combined with a similar decrease in a positive view among consumers.

By reducing consumers’ moods

In A New graph On Sunday, the chief economist Apollo noted that the new record share of households only minimal payments for credit card balances.

A Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia It turned out that the remnants of credit cards show signs of “consumer disaster”. The percentage of minimum payments reached a 12-year maximum of Fed data, while the offenses were close to new highs.

At the same time, people are increasingly experiencing that they will lose their jobs, Apollo’s report shows.

A Michigan UniversityInstitute of Social Studies Consumer Survey In April in April decreased to 52.1, decreasing to 57 in March. About two -thirds of consumers Think of the unemployment will grow this year, which twice as much as the institute’s director and economist Joanna Cho, which is quoted in the update.

“In the anxious development, consumers are increasingly experiencing that their income prospects can also deteriorate,” she continued.

Less than 50% believe that this year their income will increase, and about two -thirds believe that their purchasing power will be reduced in the coming months, the Michigan poll showed.

Originally this story was presented on Fortune.com