Trump tariffs can cost US economy hundreds of thousands of jobs: Goldman Sachs

New Goldman Sachs Report that studies as president Donald Trump Tariffs will affect the labor market, find that, although it may push the growth of employment production, job losses in other areas that affect tariffs, will lead to a pure negative impact on employment throughout the economy.

Goldman Sachs Economists, led by Jan Hatsius, considered historical and academic studies on the impact of the tariffs on the labor market in the fields protected and downstream, which rested on tariff imports.

“Some studies have revealed examples that tariffs can be effective when applying to the charged industry, products with particularly high supply, or products with less effects on the cost of the industry,” said economists. “However, the wide tariffs provided by the Trump administration are not aimed at these types of industries and products.”

The report notes that the plans of the Trump administration will increase the effective US tariff rate by 15 percentage points (PP), as well as that academic studies they have considered usually believe that increasing tariffs by 10PP increases employment in protected branches by 0.2%, but that by 1PP growth of tariffs 0.3%-0.6%.

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Analysis Goldman has discovered a common net negative impact on labor, although production can see an incentive. (Photographer: Emily Elcon / Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“These historical elasticity mean that protection against Trump tariffs Employment will lead to a little less than 100 thousand (with 0-240K estimates), but the higher contribution costs will create almost 500 thousand employment work (with estimates from 0-1Mn), “-Write economists.

“Wider statistics indicate negative pure work The effects, “they explained.” The scaling of these estimates of the US economy involves an increase of slightly less than 100 thousand to the production of employment from tariff protection, but approximately 500 thousand continues to employ pressure from pressure for the input costs. ”

In view of the balance that assessment allows you to assume Protective production branches.

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Tariffs are import taxes that pay importers, which usually transmit higher consumer costs through higher prices. (Reuters / Mike Blake / Reuters Photos)

The analysis provides three examples of circumstances in which tariffs helped to grow home production and downstream. These include tariff tariffs aimed at Protecting new branchesFor example, the impact of the McCinley tariff in 1890 on the production of US cans and the process of industrialization of South Korea.

Another example includes an increase in domestic production of goods with high supports demand, such as the tariff for US European pickups since the 1960s, which is greatly limited to the import of lung truck production. Tariffs on products that are not intermediate goods and do not affect manufacturers down on the current, can also increase work work, such as the tariffs for Japanese motorcycles in 1983, which are entered to help Harley-Davidson.

However, Goldman economists emphasized that Trump tariffs are broader and are not implemented in ways that are not focused on children’s fields, high supply and final products. This leaves a statistical analysis that shows that while tariff plans can help employment in production, it is likely to be pure drag American work.

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President Trump issued a 90-day pause for “mutual” tariffs and imposed 10% of the basic tariff on US trading partners. (Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images / Getty Images)

“The range of estimates – especially around employment effects with higher contributions – is recognized as great, and it is difficult to have confidence in pure impact, especially given the lack of historical tariffs on the size and width implemented by President Trump,” economists said.

“But these estimates mainly indicate a pure negative impact from the trade on employment, even before the employment accounting stretches from the slowdown, which we expect under our basic worldview,” they added.

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The latest Goldman Sachs basic forecast, which was updated after Trump announced a pause in his “mutual” tariff plans, predicts a 45% probability of recession and GDP growth compared to last year by 0.5% for 2025, and the main PCE infralation reaches 3.5%.