- Feeling the Foundation Manager was very correlated with the work of the S&P 500. Bofa analysts, led by Michael Hartnet, stated that the obscurity of the US shares had led to the mood of the “disaster”, but they showed that the speed and scale of the adjustments are coming forward.
Optimism of executives has money Faded away quickly In the early days Trump 2.0. Monthly Head of the World Fund Bank of America overview In March, the moods that led to the second immersion in global growth expectations and the greatest drop in the distribution of its capital in the US since BOFA began to conduct a poll in 1994.
Respondents signal that their sale helped to master a recent stock market correction If they parked their money on the sidelines – judging by Urano Buffet 334 billion dollars Monetary pile.
However the most revered investor in America gave a famous piece advice in a letter to Berkshire Hethai Shareholders in 1968: “Be afraid when other greedy and greedy, if others are afraid.” Indeed, while BOFA analysts led by the main investment strategist Michael Hartnet said that the obscuranting views on the US actions led to the mood of “bulls”, they showed that the speed and scale of the corrections that were running forward.
However, it was undoubtedly that 171 interviewees who manage approximately $ 425 billion were in the aggregate gained Again again when again, again again Tariff threats. In February, the pure 2% investors expected the weaker world economy over the next 12 months, which means that at the time, the small majority of the respondents were pessimistic. Since then, this number has been connected to 44%of a one-month immersion in anticipation of growth, except for March 2020, or at the start of the COVID-19 pandem
According to BOFA, the funds manager, Bofa said, was very correlated with the S&P 500.
“Pesimism in the global growth perspective is bad news for stocks,” the team wrote when a survey conducted in the second week was released last week.
After Trump’s election victory in November, he hopes that the new administration is prioritizing tax reducing, and deregulation has pushed a big rally for the rally. Instead instrument To resolve trade deficit in America, which has led to mass uncertainty in the US trade policy.
During the BOFA poll, 55% of the fund heads said the recession caused by the trade war is the biggest “tail risk”, which is facing the market-most quoted factor since “overcoming the Renaissance” in April 2020-dependence on inflation that force enhancement concerns that impact The Government’s Government’s Department of Government Elon Musk, also known as Dodge.
Meanwhile, more than 70% of respondents said they are expecting a terrible form “stagfolo“Either slowing and inflation dusk. However, none of the polled funding of funds predicts a true recession.
Investors get the base to cheer
It is also important to note that investor mood polls can be much better explained why stocks are recently sold than a signal where the market is sent. In one month, the average monetary position of the polled funding of funds jumped 60 basic points to 4.1%. This means the end of the contradictory signal “Sell a signal” or a metric indicating the opportunity to buy low when other investors sell, and vice versa.
This signal was originally caused in December when the allocation of the respondents dropped below 4% of the BOFA threshold. Since then Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 entered the correctional area, reducing 10% or more before recovering slightly.
It is clear that the executives decided to turn from stocks in the United States, with net 23% of investors in insufficient weight compared to a net 17% were overweight last month. The 40-point fall is the biggest in the survey history, and 69% said the topic “The US is exceptional” – either American shares that exceed the rest of the world – have reached the maximum Chinese economyMeanwhile, they became the norm.
However, the BOFA poll showed that investors still expect the Fed to reach the so-called “soft planting” or reduced inflation without causing recession, and believe that this year the Central Bank will reduce interest rates by two or three times.
On Friday, S&P ended for the first time in green. Investors got more good news last weekend reports By offering the so -called mutual tariffs reported on April 2, which Trump ordered the economic official to expose his own design for each US trading partner, will be relatively narrow in volume. The market pleased this news, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.5% as of Monday.
Originally this story was presented on Fortune.com
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2025-03-24 18:41:00
Greg McKenna
