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The winner of the German election, Friedrich Mertz, is facing serious obstacles to raising the cost of defense in Europe after the parties against the weapons of Ukraine provided enough seats to prevent the country’s strict restrictions on state borrowing.

Merz signaled the openness to reform “debt” to financing poorly necessary investment in infrastructure and in general Europe to increase defense budgets, even if its Christian Democrats (CDU) officially retained their commitment to the rules on Sunday’s Sunday.

But the far -right alternative to Germany (AFD) and the left left Die Linke received more than 210 places needed to “block minority” in the German parliament.

This gives them the powers to prevent amendment to the German debt brake, and the rule enshrined in the Constitution in 2009 to limit state borrowing and maintain a structure deficit of 0.35 percent of GDP.

The same condition is applied to the creation of a special fund of an up -balanced letter, for example, in EUR 100 billion, announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholts in 2022 to finance the overhaul of the German armed forces after Vladimir Putin’s full -scale invasion of Ukraine.

Holger Schimiding, Chief Economist Berenberg Bank, warned that the result of Sunday could create serious headaches for the measure. “At a time when it is very important to collect the costs on the military and Ukraine and facilitate the tax burden for workers and firms, Germany can fight to find the financial space for that,” he said.

“Failure to comply with military spending can force Germany into deep problems with its NATO partners. Named by US President Donald Trump, it will also add a risk of a trade war in the US-EU,” Schmiding.

Jan Tehau, an analyst who covers Germany and European defense in the Consultancy Eurosia Group, said: “In one of the biggest questions – perhaps the biggest problem – for the next government you have a minority.. This is a big problem.”

Economists warn that without changing the debt brake and the creation of a special non -budget fund will be impossible to finance tens of billions of euros urgently needed additional investment In the largest eurozone economy. This includes money for the destruction of transport and communication infrastructure, as well as a much larger defensive budget after Ukraine’s invasion.

The scale of the problem is enhanced by Trump’s return to the White House, its launch of direct peace talks with Russia and its threat to pull out US security guarantees from Europe, which forced European leaders to talk about how to fill the vacuum.

Although Mertz said he believes that could find funds to finance investment Cut off payments on well -being And stimulating economic growth, many analysts do not believe that such measures will be enough.

If the Merz decides to reform the debt – perhaps as part of the agreement with coalition partners such as the Social Democratic Party Scholz (SPD) and the greenery, both of them support the reform – the results of Sunday mean that it will be forced to navigate the terrain.

AFD, which provided historical finish on Sunday, almost 21 percent of the vote, supports higher defense costs, but severely oppose Ukraine’s weapons and opposes the debt change. Merz also excluded any form of direct cooperation with the far right party.

Die Linke, which has completed almost 9 percent, supports the brake reform debt, but strongly opposes the military support of Ukraine and the higher costs for the German armed forces.

Jensa Sudekum, Professor of International Economy at University of Henry Geine Dusseldorf and a supporter of the debt reform, called the situation “difficult to negotiate, but not impossible”.

He said it was possible to agree on an agreement with Die Linke, perhaps creating a special non -budget fund for civil infrastructure and using about 50 billion euros in saving from the usual budget to finance protection.

“The problem is what they ask for the price,” he said about Die Linke. Merz could also face a strong opposition from the inside of his party to talk to the left lin Linke, he said.

Some analysts, including Schmiding with Berenberg, claim that the Merz may suspend the debt by announcing an emergency, perhaps in the event of a serious deterioration of the situation in Ukraine.

But such a step would only allow a limited increase in the cost period. It also risks being beaten by a German Constitutional Court, which in 2023 blowing a hole of 60 billion euros In the federal budget, after the ruling against the attempt to use the emergency funds of the Pandemic Pandemic, a green transition.

“In a simpler constellation, it would be possible that CDU, Social Democrats and Greens had a super majority and pursue the financial policy needed by Germany,” Sudekum said. “Now you need settings, turns and bypass.”