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Your guide to what the US 2024 elections are for Washington and the world

“Vigilance” is a term that has only recently entered the markets of the vernacular. Time again retire equally fast.

This refers to the idea that when it is cruel, and the US stock markets collapse, Donald Trump will sit, notice and cancel some of his more aggressive policies. Usually this is the task left on the bond market, but we have a president, who in the first term warmed in the reflected glory of the raised stock market. Probably this sensitivity reduces both ways? Investors and analysts are definitely thinking. (Full disclosure of information: just as I am.)

This concept took place in Trump 2.0 in February, when Trump said he was serious about slapping hefty trading tariffs on alleged friends and neighbors in Canada and Mexico. Alas, stocks were vigilant Found insufficient. The stocks stumbled, but too gently to call any alarm in the oval office. This left the president and his administration free to double, not retreat. The stronger vigilance seemed required.

A month later, the markets are clearly in the more pronounced Tizz, and the US shares are briefly included in the so-called correctional territory-tenth of the last high. Regardless of whether they are further or not, this is certainly a question of opinion. Ask two analysts, receive at least three answers.

In any case, even at this point, the scale of rethinking in the US among the executives is quite extraordinary. In its latest monthly poll of funds worldwide, Bank of America is published on Tuesday find The biggest scope from the US on the recording. The pure quarter of the polled funding of the funds said they are now lacking in US shares – holding less distribution than the world benchmarks suggest, changing below 40 percentage points from the previous poll. Almost 70 percent of investors say that the peak concept of “American exceptionalism” is now.

Investors in an unpleasant mood. The bank poll also revealed the second largest increase in the level of pessimism, who stated that it expected the global economy to weaken the time its records began in 1994. For context, the greatest growth was five years ago, in the teeth of global closure.

This is more like this-notable message from Wall Street to the President that his constant tariff transfer and the fact that we could euphemistically call him geopolitical perestroika are a black sign against the stock market, which led to the world as most of the fund executives can remember.

Again, Trump’s team claims to be dissatisfied. In fact, it turns the whole idea on the head, trying to convince the world that it is what they wanted all the time – the bound, cleansing reset in the markets, which is a necessary step to make America great again. I also missed this from the campaign trail.

Minister Treasury Scott Import, the same person who declared Last year, “Kamala Harris will start with a Kamal disaster on the stock market, and then it will be a Kamal disaster in the economy” Now talking He “does not” undergo “healthy” correction that works late. Secretary of Trade Howard Lutnut repeated this, is marked Earlier this month, the results of the stock market are not a “driving force” behind the president’s tariff policy.

As Barclays’s analysts have expressed diplomatically, “Trump and his administration expressed greater tolerance for adverse economic cases than we expected.”

Those who are waiting for “put” here is a point on the market where the president changed his heart and retreat – they crawl to the terrible realization that they were wrong. “Where did they put it?” -I asked at HSBC a team with multiple Asset.

To return it to the game, they said that one of the few things should happen: prolonged confiscation in the flow of fresh state debt or capital into the world; Strease start in the deepest financial system plumbing; Either global and flap collapse in risky assets. None of them are happening yet – for example, the decline in the US has not fully infected Europe, and market steps have been ordered when unpleasant.

One of the corresponding items to be added to this list is the shak of the bond. Now the Treasury as a whole is calm and in equilibrium is supporting the increase in the chances of the US economic slowing, but also attracts delaying concern about financial incontinence and charges due to the reserve status. If anything, the administration will react more in any direction there.

Bond Vigilances – original and best – still beat his newcomers’ promotions any day of the week.

katie.martin@ft.com